Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
904 FXUS64 KLIX 012316 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 616 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 602 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 - Warm with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. Organized severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong storm with heavy rain is possible. - Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and out of caution levels for the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Upper ridging extended from the Caribbean Sea to the western Bahamas this morning, with troughing over the West Coast. A weak shortwave was over western Louisiana with a stronger shortwave near Las Vegas. At the surface, the Bermuda high extended westward across much of the Gulf. A frontal boundary extended from New England to southeast Kansas to west Texas. Southerly flow continued to pump moisture into the area. This morning`s upper air sounding showed precipitable water values near the 90th percentile climatologically (1.43 inches). An extensive cumulus field was already in place, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving inland from coastal areas. Late morning temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points around 70. Moisture levels are expected to remain elevated through Thursday night, with the entire area keeping precipitable water values in excess of the 75th percentile and a majority of the area above the 90th percentile. Organized forcing looks to be rather limited, other than perhaps the shortwave near Las Vegas this morning. That one looks like it will be weakening as it moves into the middle Mississippi River Valley tomorrow evening, but it may be close enough to enhance areal coverage of storms somewhat tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, it looks like isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day, starting as early as 10 or 11 am, and dissipating around early evening. During the overnight hours, convection should stay mainly offshore. Little day to day change in high or low temperatures through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Friday and Saturday likely to be a continuation of the last several days. Moisture levels will continue to be near the upper end of climatology through Saturday, with scattered convection favoring the afternoon hours. A strong northern stream shortwave will force a frontal boundary through the area Saturday night or Sunday morning, enhancing coverage of showers and thunderstorms somewhat. That front will bring cooler and drier air to the area Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, with drier and slightly cooler air moving into the area in the wake of the front for early next week. Dry weather is expected from Monday through at least Wednesday of next week. High temperatures are likely to continue in the upper 70s to middle 80s Friday and Saturday, then remain in the 70s from Sunday through midweek next week. Overnight lows will be in the 60s Saturday morning, gradually cooling to the 40s and 50s by Monday, with the coolest morning likely to be Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Convection is already starting to decrease with the loss of daytime heating. This is leading to mostly VFR conditions over the local terminals this evening. This again like the last few days will change overnight as low stratus again builds down leading to CIG/VIS issues. MVFR or IFR (locally lower) will be likely again overnight. On Thursday, more showers and storms in the afternoon may lower VIS/CIGs at least briefly. However, outside of convection, VFR conditions are due to return by late morning. Otherwise, continued moderate southerly flow expected. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Nearly stationary high pressure will continue a persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet over the coastal waters through the next several days. There could be brief periods of winds approaching 20 knots. A cold frontal passage late Saturday or Sunday will turn winds northerly on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Sunday night into Monday behind the front. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW